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By Weihua

The tide began to recede by the financial tsunami, the dawn of hope can still be seen. The second half of 2009, with the cost of raw materials price increases, as well as furniture, decoration, wood products industry needs to rise in the amount of bamboo raw materials price level shocks upstream, and the prices so that practitioners in the initial warming to see more hope. In the economic situation, “Bear bull” crucial period of transformation, bamboo industry in the coming six months of the stock market will be how the scene? With the current domestic and international economic situation and the bamboo Quotes trends and try to make the following estimate.

Good Timber Industry to the Economy of Macroeconomic Boost

After experiencing the vicissitudes of 2008 and the ups and downs of 2009, the major economies have experienced varying degrees of signs of recovery, which indicates that the global economy will gradually move out of the mire of the financial crisis. While the global economy, there are many uncertainties, local problems and worries will continue, but less likely to macroeconomic second bottom, the recovery trend is irresistible.

2009 is a watershed year, while the economic situation in 2010 will directly determine the recovery process. In 2010, the Chinese government will maintain continuity and stability of macroeconomic policy will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderate loose monetary policy. In particular, by the end of 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao at the Zhongnanhai exclusive interview with Xinhua, said that to ensure stable and rapid economic growth, goals have not changed our premature withdrawal policy to stimulate the economy, then it may cause come to naught, and even have made the situation reversed. Can be seen that the state’s macroeconomic policy will not change easily, our economy will continue to be strong policy support.

According to industry experts estimate that by 2010, China’s timber shortage will reach more than 200 million cubic meters, can be seen tremendous demand for bamboo and wood materials, rigid and related products in the market consumption potential is far from peaked. Dongguan Industrial timber market believe that the impact of financial crisis may continue for some time, but the most difficult times are behind us; the long run, the economic recovery in the global context of a new round of growth cycle was pregnant with our Bamboo industry and its raw materials processing industry has entered a recovery track, the industry level will gradually boost the economy.

Market sales will continue a new round of rise

After a decline of more than a year after the second half of 2009, the initial signs of recovery emerging timber industry, many types of wood Fang, veneer, plywood, product volume and price level bottomed out, started a new round of rise. Industrial timber market forecasts, with the help of the wind of economic recovery in 2010 in the first half, most of bamboo raw materials and finished products sales will continue a modest upward trend rising. There are three main reasons:

First, since the summer of 2009, the domestic real estate market quickly pick up some hot urban trading level of catch-up in 2007, and thus pulling the furniture, decoration, infrastructure industries such as consumer demand. By 2010, the real estate industry is expected to remain relatively stable demand and supply situation, which will help bamboo industry continued to improve. The domestic furniture market, Huo-wang, will greatly contribute to all kinds of veneer, wood Fang, puzzle, wood-based panels, bamboo skin bamboo consumption, such as the northeast of linden wood, birch, elm, ash and other species as well as the south-west (including the Myanmar region) Teak, piling wood, white wood, Southwest Cheng, water melon, grapefruit and other common varieties of gold will continue to be a market selling point. Domestic decoration industry will veneer, plywood, creating more business opportunities, such as the bamboo skin of bamboo, science and technology veneer, veneer northeast, southwest veneer, veneer Africa, Europe and the United States veneer, Southeast Asia, veneer, plywood, Daixinban, MDF, etc., have by the market-proven products will continue strong sales.

Second, the second half of 2008 to 2009, foreign markets, demand for bamboo products significantly reduced, this situation is expected to be reversed. By 2010, Europe and the United States the country’s economic situation will slowly turn for the better, and the major economies will not be quick to remove all economic incentives. With the recovery in Europe and the United States to stabilize the economy, the decline in the unemployment rate and other positive factors in the emergence, from 2010 onwards, external demand has been suppressed to some extent will be the release, which Europe and the United States, Africa, Southeast Asia, Fang wood, veneer and through the CARB and the FSC certification of man-made board will bring significant promotional role.

Third, due to financial crisis, in 2009 in the first half of timber Quotes severe shocks, the vast majority of sales of products in the market hit bottom. Based on the period of unsatisfactory performance, can be predicted that the first half of 2010, most of the sales of certain raw materials products will achieve year on year growth, the increase of different products depending on their specific Quotes may be. Need to draw attention is that the follow-up due to the negative impact of financial crisis will continue to exist, the possibility of the sharp rebound in consumer demand is still small, much less catch-up in a short time before the crisis level, bamboo raw materials and processing industry of the stock market trend may also occur and repeated shocks.

Bamboo Costs and Market Value, “rising in tandem”

The next few months, the rising cost and demand is very likely boost the market price of the majority of bamboo and wood materials, higher, in particular, best-selling varieties and varieties of stagflation in 2009 will enter a new period of price increases.

Cost rising for a rebound will be driven commodity prices hit a new high. Industrial timber market dealers introduced in 2009, Northeastern material, southwest wood, African wood, Europe and the United States wood, timber log prices in Southeast Asia had access to the uplink channel, and the rapid increase in transportation and processing costs, all kinds of raw material products, the increasing cost pressures increase; while the domestic market, Fang wood, veneer market price has not been a corresponding rise, of which only a part of the popular varieties of the corresponding price increases, there are many products, price increases lagged behind, even a small number of products, market prices fail to rise declined. By 2010, the trend of broad based around the wood will pass the cost to the domestic timber market is likely to trigger a modest rise in prices for most products. Material the Northeast, for example, by the end of 2009, the Northeast forest authorities announced the Northeast timber auction prices, the Northeast cost of the new timber situation appears broad based, or mainly in 100-400 yuan / m3 between; Spring Festival, more than kinds of the Northeast market has been raised 23 hundred dollars timber. Daxinganling party secretary of Heilongjiang Province, administrative commissioner Song Xibin party reported to the State Forestry Administration, said that in 2010, Daxinganling will continue to be reduced stumpage production. To be sure, in 2010, the Northeast timber supply is still tight market rally will continue. In addition, Europe and the United States, Africa, Southeast Asia and other places is more than log price rise, the domestic market, related to wood Fang, veneer prices will continue to rise with the cost, but the price increases exceed the cost or difficulty.

U.S. dollar, the euro’s rebound will boost imports of timber to stabilize prices. As the situation for the better and the main rise in currency exchange rates, local markets are restored, raw materials producers, as well as the related trade body will not blindly short timber commodity prices. In this context, the price of imported timber, or will remain upward trend shock, such as beech, maple, cherry, ash, poplar and other types of pre-European material prices rose less in 2010 will continue to be upward.

The price of supply and demand relationship is one of the determinants. When the pick-up in domestic and external demand led to best-selling varieties in short supply, hot-selling products certainly strengthen the rally, the most typical representative of Russia due to severe shortage of wood ash and other price increases likely to continue; In addition, the booming demand and supply of plywood, large core boards and other wood-based panel product prices due to furniture, decoration industry, pick up will remain strong.

A small number of unmarketable veneer, wood Fang species and wood-based panel products with lower environmental levels of the stock market difficult to pick up, and even the existence or the possibility of price-volume Qi, such as the Northeast larch, the African Red Rose wood, low-grade medium density fiberboard and other products is the lack of apparent power prices. The decorative panels, aluminum composite panel, wood and chemical products due to the cost of the price stability will be maintained relatively stable level.

New Starting Point for Rational Distribution of the Use of Transit

Slowly at low tide of the financial tsunami. Painful as the experience is not difficult to find, bamboo raw materials industry and machining industry, despite the many ups and downs of external factors, but the more profound their own reasons, such as the lack of brand, ignoring domestic, low-technology, distribution channels and other ills of a single exposed. Industrial timber market participants stressed that, since 2010, the macroeconomic model by the Government to stimulate the recovery of the recovery of the autonomy of changes in changes in the way of economic development imperative. Against this trend, the bamboo industry is only focused their attention on market consumption trends, improve production technology, improve management, optimize product structure, improve sales pattern, trade, scientific and rational planning in order to make further and further robust pace of recovery in order to In the new growth cycle starting point to take an advantageous position.

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